The Winter of Our Disconnect: How Good Management Gets It Wrong.

As a small business owner myself, I have insight into this banking vs. small business vs. Obama’s small business proposals, much better than the pundits do and I can see there is many a slip between cup and lip.


Maria Bartiroma discusses Obama’s push for small bs lending w/banking executives…

It’s interesting to note that Maria didn’t have several owners of small business on this program to combat what the bankers were saying. I’ve heard nothing but war stories from small business owners looking for funding from their bankers, they having particulary good credit but needing to either purchase inventory for purchase orders or raise capital for purchasing product to resell (companies who have been in business for over 10 years, have steady clientele and can show they can pay the money back). In the course of running a business these are not unusual requests in any given year and heretofore businesses got the funding. Everyone I am speaking with these days can’t get funding (access to capital), at least the small businesses that the Obama administration is trying to support.

I wonder who these banks and Bartiroma define as small business. Listening to this report tells me they don’t know anything about how small business operates. Most of the companies who have been able then to gain access to capital for short term lending have had to reach out to angel investors or even friends to cobble together what they need or go without, thus the laying off of employees and the no hiring. So Obama is acting on good intel, however, what the bankers are saying about the federal regulators is also what I am hearing….the regulators have clamped down to a significant degree and have tied the lenders hands, as if things weren’t difficult enough anyway.

The New York Times reported on how badly the ARC loans (the Small Business Administration America’s Recovery Act program that was to have provided emergency bridge loans) have been administered. A lot of the banks aren’t even doing the loans because they seem so risky to them, and the ones who are have been very slow to respond to the small bs. owners needs. Sounds like what I’ve heard also from home owners who are trying to get their loans renegotiated….it’s a process that is slow to happen, constant keeping up….calling to make sure their paperwork has not fallen through the cracks, and then to only have a short term fix on the loan created.

In the private sector we talk about how all successful programs are based on good execution of a plan. And here is where this administration is failing is in the execution. Leave it up to Congress to create the details? That’s a surefire recipe for failure. While I don’t agree with most of what is said in the above video, I do agree that everyone needs to get on the same page. That’s not that difficult. We all speak English. However, the expectation that Congress can do its job accordingly is just foolish, too many in Congress act on the basis of their own agendas and petty squabbles come with the territory. We have a White House administration for this purpose, to set and administer policy. Leadership sets the directive, and makes sure the team has all the tools necessary to do it’s job.

True what they say that government should not be in charge but our private sector isn’t doing it’s job either. They are doing whatever they can to hang onto what they have (with the exception of the no account banking system which seems to be the one making money hand over fist & keeping it….this will come back to haunt them).

Maybe I should have titled this post the best laid plans of mice and men often go astray, clearly.

Got Color, Got Pattern, Got Trend.

Could not help but notice:

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Effeti Kitchen……………………………Dior Haute Couture 2010

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Motivo-Ceaserstone ……………Mickey Rourke Golden Globes 2010

Breaking the Mold for Future’s Sake: Think Global, Act Local.

“>Apple’s Classic 1984 Superbowl Ad

A number of trend forecasters, myself included, are jumping on the “act local” bandwagon. I say this at the same time I am encouraging small business in particular to consider the BRIC countries for export to help them through this sluggish economy.

This notion, acting local, is the single biggest factor to my launching a manufacturing business in St. Louis, MO. For My BFF is a pet bed and accessory company attempting to manufacture product right here on US soil, in my backyard, creating jobs and pumping money into our local economy. It’s a noble exercise and one based as much on faith as research. To say I’ve come across a closed and tight fisted community is an understatement, but that’s due more to our economy than my company. If anything, I have not been discouraged to continue on by our community’s leaders. People by and large want to see me make it but I do have to do the heavy lifting in the beginning. That’s just the way it is and I’ve accepted the challenge and picked up the gauntlet. So far so good.

But to all of you out there, as this is a blog that speaks about a range of topics which more or less highlights trends, be they socio-political, design, business practices, or color they are trends that you are supposed to be considering when you are planning next steps.

And going local is going to be a big movement. I’m sure you wonder about that given the size and nature of Wal-Mart, the power and influence of brands like Oprah and Martha Stewart, but that in and of itself speaks to the movement. These very institutions while enormously influential in our daily lives for a very long time have also created a sort of lock step life, a homogenized society because we’re all listening to a few voices, buying the same things, and going to the same places. Where’s the variety, where’s the innovation, where are the opportunities for millions of Americans to do it for themselves, to grow, to prosper themselves instead of making someone else very very very rich while they’ve lost their homes, their retirement accounts, their health insurance and their dignity?

Now if the emotional side of this argument isn’t interesting enough for you, I found this post at a fellow competitor’s blog and feel it’s only good business to link you to it. If you are looking for a way forward, know that there are more than a few of us who are in the same business and are on the same bandwagon. Besides, PSFK has an infographic and specifically talks about how the money flows when people shop local.

Then there is this article from the L.A. Times about trends for 2010 wherein Faith Popcorn speaks out about the movement to act local, “In fact, trend forecaster Faith Popcorn has made the concept of localization the cornerstone of her predictions for 2010,” say the authors of the article (see page 3).

For me when I think a trend is strong, strong enough for people to make money on, that’s usually where you will find me in action. So I don’t just forecast it, I get myself in the middle of the movement…thus the creation of For My BFF in St. Louis. It has a social component to it as well which again speaks to the need of the community.

It’s a little like Bill Gates (dare I speak about myself in the same vein as him?) who in speaking about innovation which is another very hot topic right now, illustrates how innovation works by talking about the things he is doing right now (The Gates Notes) that employ innovation as a tactic for finding solutions to societal ills such as discovering vaccines for malaria or creating a new educational system that will work for the future of America and keep it competitive on the world stage. Others write about innovation and dissect what it is, which depending upon who is doing the writing (that link is an excellent description of innovation called “Design Thinking”) or explaining, can be helpful or in fact damaging. Nonetheless, innovation is a key tactic to employ in your strategies for creating business in 2010 and beyond. It’s not a me too world anymore, it’s a “let’s break the mold,” kinda world.

It’s not for the fainthearted either but let’s face it, in a world where the status quo threatens our very existence instead of extending it, thinking outside the proverbial box has become a mandate for creating a sustainable future (and why I invoke the now infamous 1984 Apple Superbowl ad above…afterall look what Apple has accomplished since the breaking of that ad, need I say more).

Trendforecasters Do Have An Advantage: Perspective.

Is that a self promotion or what? Well, I think it’s more of an observation.

Part of what I do is to get a view of more than one angle of society and industry as well as demographic. So it affords me the opportunity of comparing (sometimes) one set of mores/attitudes from one group vs the other….

Some of my observations which I think point to more significant data:

1) The social media guys are happy, somewhat insulated & employed. Suddenly they are the new messiah of the world.

2) The mainstream media is having a very bad moment and they aren’t happy, their news is sad and they are sad, their empires are falling.

3) The fashion industry is in some pretty dire straits. Even with sales figures, at least at the lower end, showing some resilience for holiday, they still face an entirely uncertain future. Their industry too falls into the category of empires falling….print media for them doesn’t have the sway it used to; those in control are working fast and furiously to catch up with where they think the rest of the world is. Problem is those decisions are still being made by the same minds that got them to where they are right now, so their attempts while in some cases noteworthy (Showtime and Alexander McQueen’s live streaming Womens SS 2010 video), it’s still pretty tepid. Sending school aged bloggers to sit in the front row of fashion shows? Back in the Day (that would be yesterday), people would accuse such gimmicks as a ratings scheme. And I can tell they have a lot to learn about Social Media. The best of the best on Twitter and Facebook have a personal style and interact with their followers. Fashion is still shouting about how beautiful they are, still shoving celebrity down our throats. That’s still the old way whether using it on Twitter, Facebook or your own website.

4) If it’s true what they say, you are what you eat, then the same can be applied to you are what you read and I’m feeling the need for reading some Henry David Thoreau (a whole book and not a 140 character or less quote from it).

5) I tweeted that content isn’t king, but that context is king and I find that depending upon who is doing the definition several very important verbs and nouns take on some pretty different meanings: and that would be transparency, authenticity, and engagement. Meaning I guess definition is in the mind of the teller. The efforts though, in the first part of January have been
noteworthy though in trying to understand it. That’s a good thing.

6) Design is on hold (no significant developments, not in any industry), the information mill is full of drek and that includes the ivory halls of mainstream media who supposedly do an incredible job of sussing out the “hard news and real facts,” and my theory of this period being like the wild, wild, west is sadly on par. As consumers of anything, I hope we can soon start demanding quality and not quantity and while giddy (myself included) with excitement over some of the new tech directions and developments, lets hope it doesn’t color our standards for fill in the blank subject matter at hand.

There are several reasons for my writing what some may deem a stinging blog post. One is that there is an article being tweeted in large numbers right now that lists the qualities and skills required for the next generation of journalists. While I have my criticisms of Mainstream Media, I also know some of these people have worked incredibly hard and long at their professions and just because someone understands SEO, doesn’t and won’t ever make them a good journalist. Somebody’s drinking too much Social Media Koolaid.

The other reason is that we are in a vicious cycle of supply vs demand with no real leadership taking the reigns to set the ship aright. On the one hand, the banks seem to be coming out of their freefall but are coming back to repeat the sins of the not so distant past and reaping the rewards while Joe Schmoe is still trying to dig himself/herself out of the trenches….what’s that about? I’d like to start seeing news about entertainers, sports figures, celebrity journalists, talk show hosts or anyone that Joe Schmoe collectively has made very very very rich and what they are doing to help create jobs so that said collective can continue to make them rich. I want to see who is doing what by name and actual numbers to improve the current condition our condition is in. Because I posit that those who are still making money by and large are clueless to what a significant number of people in THIS country are going through right now.

Let’s get real here, the consumer is still the one who holds the key to making things right and while I see all the social media geniuses out there right now capitalizing on this new movement (while they are making money), I see them being focused on social media specifically. They don’t know enough about any one industry except tech to help industries outside the tech industry become successful with it…ergo the insulation. More people in general, marketers specific to their industry, need to have a voice that is not cluttered with SEO, analytics, and ROI and more on strategy per se to show how it does work and can work for small businesses, personal brands, corporations not there yet, and so on. (although honorable mention has to go to the CMO’s who are tweeting in a personal style but for their companies on Twitter right now….).

Let me be clear here, social media is part of the marketing matrix, not all of it. Designers still need to design good things and know what their customer wants, CEO’s still need to lead with vision, and bankers still need to help their customers make money.

While we are getting back to basics, lets get back to some of these.

Prada Live Stream for Menswear AW 2010.

And you can review it yourself at Prada’s website. or “>here

The set is the most dynamic. Hip indeedy and supported the mood for a 90’s/70’s Ashton Kutcher cum Jude Law look with 3/4 length coats and big buttons, high collars and wide lapels in an edgy beige or black vinyl, pop culture prints, and a beige wool. For a Milanese house though it all had a very British tone mixed with a lot of androgeny.

Kudos on the first live stream. Again, the set was to die for…and at one point, very clear lyrics, in an almost syfy voice, announcing, “time to forget a dead empire and build a living republic, time to forget a dead empire and build a living republic.”

Head’s up fashion industry. Prada speaks.

What’s Happening Now.

merry_go_round.jpg

I haven’t disappeared, I’ve just been undercover or it feels like it.

Let me explain. Now having a Twitter account, @kimbrotoo, I have gotten onto what seems like a virtual merry go round, and I like it. You gotta use some skill to both jump on and jump off. Once on though you can play all kinds of games to keep yourself from getting bored (and dizzy) by just going around in circles (heard of Foursquare?).

Don’t know that that justifies the telling of the experience or not. I interact with people I follow and who follow me to make things more interesting, plus there’s soooo much info to take in. And I’m on a platform, Tweetdeck, that allows me to see both my facebook and my LinkedIn status at the same time I’m keeping track of my Twitter stream. That said,

What I’ve learned:

1) Technology is changing at an even more alarming rate: Google is declaring all out war on every other tech company regardless of what it is or produces and looks to be winning
2) Twitter is declaring all out war on Facebook: outcome TBD
3) Conan O’Brien may be a reflection of the movie character Conan and be able to bring down NBC, Jay Leno and the Tonight Show with one fell letter.
4) $10M has been raised through Twitter for Haiti and shows once again how Twitter can be a driving force when there is something overwhelming happening in the world. And as a side note, I am now following @redcross (thinking forward to 2012….)
5) Some say blogs are dead, Seth Godin says libraries are dead and how we get info has changed forever, so better keep blogging (I’m in that camp) some say facebook will get gobbled up, some say Twitter will die, some think the laptop will be replaced by the smartphone (I am one of those), and many don’t agree with Pantone’s color of the year this year, torquoise (I am also one of those).

Whoa. Jumping off… gotta get my breath….so, see why I love the merry go round? For someone who needs to keep up on all kinds of information to observe patterns that speak to trends, there’s nothing like Twitter. Did I mention the interesting people you meet on there too?

And, it lets me multitask…at the same time I am collecting info, I am also giving my own brand of info out AND, and this is a big AND, I was able to announce the launch of my new company, for my bff, an eco friendly Made In the USA pet bed manufacturing company housed right here in St. Louis.

bff-web-green-logo-w_type-small.jpg

for my bff, saving the planet one pet bed at a time.

I connected to the people who are making the ingredient that makes the foam some 10-20% soy based, Cargill’s BiOH polyol, also on Twitter, who helped me announce for my bff’s launch and I was also able to announce on both LinkedIn and Twitter at the same time the feature the local news station did on the pet shop where for my bff got into and we got some local news love at the same time: Go Green: Owning Pets.

What you are witnessing is a convert to the social media medium for communications…..it’s fast, it’s cheap, and the more you work at it, the better it works for you.

But, this year I do resolve to manage my time on it better…..

I’ll be back with links to the info above so you can understand more of the details of above, if you want to, or link to me and you’ll see what I’m seeing….@kimbrotoo.

Trendbites Macro Trend Report for the Coming Decade.

Happy 2010 everybody. Happy New Decade, one that I predict will bring prominence to the individual. Not in a reality show kind of way but in the way that is truly meaningful and reflective of how the average individual is impacted by the decisions often made by a few individuals behind closed doors. Transparency, authenticity and engagement will be the rule of the day.

I am optimistic about 2010 itself simply because it’s also an election year, something that always motivates change for good.
Job Creation and solutions to the currently unacceptable high unemployment number in the United States will finally become Job 1 for the country’s leaders. If not, the Democrats are sure to lose their majority rule.

Social Media, already an exploding industry, will become formalized this year and I for one am very excited about it. The doors to so much will open as a conseqence of this movement for it’s sheer simplicity for reaching across the globe if for no other reason.

Luxury Fashion will reinvent itself because it has to and there is too much money being left on the table. Fashion has become democratized as a consequence of the web but also because of designer brands creating limited edition lines going into such places as Target and even Wal Mart–that’s unlikely to change. While some think haute couture is less defacto of luxury fashion, I think it will rise to a new prominence…it’s one of the few ways luxury can in fact distance itself from fast fashion. But new technology will allow for more instant and more improved results and services.

This decade will finally bring a new emphasis back to the boomer and marketer’s will begin targeting them once again with less emphasis on youth and more emphasis on reaching and speaking to the full range of demographics. Ethics (ageist discrimination) may be the initial motivation, but eventually it will be because of the bottom line. Boomers still are the wealthiest of the demographics and buy more than just drugs and financial services.

Speaking of which, financial services will be revamped….more of that focus on the individual. Much like broadcast television and mainstream media reinventing itself so too will the financial services industry. Serving the broader good will showcase itself back to the 60’s mantra of creating programs and policies where “all boats will be lifted.”

The anger and frustration that is throbbing beneath the surface of a self serving Congress, Mainstream Media, Celebrity Culture and CEO control will finally surface to the point that the person on the street gets their day in the sun and for more than the 15 minutes Mr. Warhol once declared. This time it will be to actually serve the person on the street and restore them to their rightful place in society. Systems like Twitter exemplify the emergence of the individual. People though like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett will be instrumental in making these things happen, even to the point of exerting influence in politics to create the change in focus. These two personify the movement. When they decide to focus on the average individual, they above all will benefit from it. The collaspe of institutions, companies, industries and governments at the end of this last decade has finally proven the individual has given up way to much power to the hands of a few and are back to claim it.

Ironically, while this report is macro to a fault, it’s all about things in importance being reduced to the most micro of levels: the individual.

Good News re Shopping Numbers.

holiday-shopping.jpgRough year? That’s putting it mildly for many of us, especially in retail and manufacturing, but the early numbers for shopping during the holiday season indicate the consumer was in a mood to shop. So while it may only be the season, that news is worthy of breathing a sigh of relief.

All shopping thus far increased by 3.6% from last year’s numbers (which slid 2.3%) in the November 1 to December 24 period; we still have a week to go to know what the final results are or will be but it’s looking good.*

And online sales, and this is important, increased 15.5%. So, online is poised to be the winner of the shopping outlets. Exactly for what has yet to surface but most importantly this number suggests the consumer continues their steady migration to the web.

So, Digerati, time to put your game face on for 2010….it’s gonna be a head turner.

*Numbers reported by MasterCard Advisors’ Spending Pulse tracking all forms of spending.

Christmas 2009

A year many of us will glady put behind us, 2009 represents a turning point for business, for the internet, for media, for government, and for how Christmas itself is experienced. With food pantry lines up, unemployment at Depression high levels at the same time banks are recouping and the stock market is bouncing back, there exists one of the greatest disconnects between the haves and have nots on America’s very own shores I’ve ever witnessed, and I’ve lived awhile.

Anyone who has read my blog for the last few years knows I pick a holiday music video that represents the culture of the moment, and this year is no different. For this year I’ve selected Band Aid’s 84 classic “Do they know it’s Christmas Time.” “>Feed the world.

Oh and Merry Christmas….whatever that means for you and your loved ones this year. May 2010 indeed bring about the change we are looking for.

2008’s holiday music video pick here
2007’s holiday music video pick here

What People Will by and large Be Doing in 2010: Predictions by Mashable’s Pete Cashmore.

Twitter is now the starmaker. Before it was blogs, then the makers of apps such as Facebook and Twitter, now the twitverse in general is creating the new celebrity.

And one of my favs as I’ve mentioned before on this blog is Mashable’s Social Media Guide. The original founder, Pete Cashmore, is now a writer for CNN’s Tech report and Cashmore’s latest article is on the top 10 Web Trends to watch for 2010. And I’d say he pretty much covers it, and then some.

Some of you may not even know all of this is already going on. If you don’t, get on board cause this is all for real. Speaking of which, my favorite trend is that of “real time.”

I have become so accustomed to that “real time” thing that anytime I am not doing things in real time I feel as if I have opted for the horse ‘n buggy days.

Such as my bank. If I make a debit transaction today at 3:00 p.m. and I want to know how much I have left to spend on that sweater set as a gift for someone for Christmas, I think I should be able to call the automated system or look online and get that figure. Do I? No. Not only am I not able to function in real time with this bank but the people who function there are not in sync with one another. Online vs real world people do not add up in other words. And boy do the banks make out financially not catering to their customer’s needs or rather life in real time.

So I might add to Pete Cashmore’s predictions (but his are web based, mine blur the lines, i.e., web based is virtual time which is now real time) that banks will further slip into that state of purgatory we now call limbo in 2010 on their way to extinction (we can only hope) in 2011 and 2012.

So this begs the question, who or better yet what will replace the evil banker?

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